If you were a user of FanDuel or DraftKings, putting money on a team you think will win a sporting event would probably be called “placing a bet.”
But placing bets on sports, or anything for that matter, is NOT legal in all 50 states.
However, there is no need to fear! Kalshi allows users in all 50 states to purchase "events-based futures contracts" on essentially any sporting event in the world.
As you may know, this distinction hinges on federal law because it treats these trades as financial derivatives rather than traditional gambling. This specific legal classification has opened the door for nationwide access.
This opportunity to, for lack of better words, bypass the law via a loophole has been a draw for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Both have experienced massive growth since installing sports markets; total trading volume across the industry surged to over $40 billion in 2025, and the total user base reached an estimated 15 million people.
But this growth has not come without increased attention from the industry's biggest critics. For months, state regulators have fought to prove these contracts are actually unlicensed gambling. In New York, Attorney General Letitia James just yesterday labeled them as "bets masquerading as event contracts." Meanwhile, a Nevada judge also issued a 14-day restraining order specifically to block trading during the Super Bowl, ruling that these platforms are "reasonably likely" to be violating state law.
It is easy to understand why some of the Super Bowl markets are receiving so much flack. For reference, there are markets allowing you to "predict" the pregame coinflip. Traders can currently buy a contract on "Heads" for $0.51, which is worse effective value than a real coin toss.
However, I do want to recognize that not all of the novelty markets surrounding the Super Bowl are necessarily gambling. I think there probably is a way to use both quantitative and qualitative research to predict outcomes like the color of the Gatorade used in post-game Gatorade shower, celebrity attendance, and which companies will choose to advertise at the Super Bowl. I, personally, believe a prediction market will purchase an ad space during the Super Bowl (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE).
Currently, prediction markets are pricing Seattle to win the matchup against New England. Traders are giving the Seahawks a commanding 68% probability of victory. But, in my opinion, I think prediction markets stand to make the most gain from the event.
Have you ever heard the phrase, “All press is good press?”
Though I don’t agree with that term in a blanket sense, I do think it can be applied here.
These markets are new and hungry. Litigation sucks, but, they knew it would be a part of the process. These are the growing pains of an industry.
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$495k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?”
$429k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?”
$318.8k on NO for “Will Bitcoin hit $150k or above by February 28th, 2026?”
$297k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?”
$247.5k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?”
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics - Republican turnout in the Texas Senate primary? (Kalshi)
Politics - Larger margin of victory: Texas Senate Dem or GOP primary? (Kalshi)
Business - Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? (Polymarket)
Culture - Megan Moroney 'Cloud 9' First Week Album Sales? (Polymarket)
Culture - Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? (Polymarket)
Meme of the Day:
Anyways, that is all for today folks.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh and hot off of the prediction market desk you want to share? Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written with ❤️ and ☕️ in Nashville, TN, USA at 6:56AM CST)