Big weekend (as always) for prediction markets.
Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, came out swinging with some heavy criticism. He basically said the industry is getting too distracted by "dopamine-driven" events like sports betting and crypto prices instead of focusing on what actually makes these markets valuable—like seeking truth and hedging risk.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged back over $70k, which immediately caused prediction market traders to rethink the odds of a Fed rate cut.
But honestly, the biggest news dropped late last week when the CFTC announced its new Innovation Advisory Committee. The lineup is absolutely stacked—CEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Cboe, CME, and even the Nasdaq made the list.
Seriously, if you only click one link in this whole newsletter, make it the full list of members on that committee.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
Ethereum Founder, Vitalik Buterin, Criticizes Prediction Market "Corposlop" (full story)
Bitcoin Rally Shifts Rate Cut Odds (full story)
Kalshi's Aggressive State Litigation Strategy Detailed (full story)
NBC published an article explaining the origins of prediction markets, solid read (full story)
CFTC Announces Innovation Advisory Committee Members (full story)
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum, non-sports) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$341.4k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?
$340.7k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
$339.4k PURCHASE (NO): Government shutdown on Saturday?
$336.7k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?
$221.8k PURCHASE (NO): Government shutdown on Saturday?
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics - Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass? (Kalshi)
Tech - Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? (Polymarket)
Economics - February Unemployment Rate (Polymarket)
Culture - "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes) (Polymarket)
Geopolitics - Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? (Polymarket)
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 8:20 AM CST)