Javier Castellon Villanueva

Javier Castellon Villanueva

obsessed with prediction markets

Newsletter

Wall Street Is Betting on Prediction Markets: Tradeweb-Kalshi Deal, Two Legal Wins, and More

Feb 20, 2026

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2 min read

Wall Street Is Betting on Prediction Markets: Tradeweb-Kalshi Deal, Two Legal Wins, and More

Plus, the Economist released an article on why insider trading within prediction markets might not be a bad thing.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

The Federal Reserve Just Validated Prediction Markets

Feb 19, 2026

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4 min read

The Federal Reserve Just Validated Prediction Markets

The Fed published a paper calling Kalshi a benchmark for macro markets. Wall Street ETFs are filing. The NYSE President is paying attention. This is mainstream acceptance.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Kalshi Just Lost Nevada — And Now the CFTC Is Declaring War on Every State That Disagrees

Feb 18, 2026

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4 min read

Kalshi Just Lost Nevada — And Now the CFTC Is Declaring War on Every State That Disagrees

The 9th Circuit denied Kalshi's motion for an administrative stay, Nevada filed suit to block operations, and the CFTC declared exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Prediction Markets Face a Regulatory Reckoning

Feb 17, 2026

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3 min read

Prediction Markets Face a Regulatory Reckoning

A landmark Nevada vs. Kalshi ruling, a CFTC op-ed, and New Zealand's ban mark a turning point for the prediction markets industry.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

CFTC Stacks Innovation Committee With Polymarket, Kalshi, CME, and Nasdaq CEOs

Feb 16, 2026

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3 min read

CFTC Stacks Innovation Committee With Polymarket, Kalshi, CME, and Nasdaq CEOs

Plus: Vitalik Buterin slams "dopamine-driven" prediction markets, and Bitcoin's surge above $70k shifts Fed rate cut odds

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

What does insider trading mean in the world of prediction markets?

Feb 13, 2026

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3 min read

What does insider trading mean in the world of prediction markets?

The first "Insider Trading" charges in prediction markets have been served this week. At the same time, Kalshi's CEO struggles to define what insider trading is within prediction markets.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

DraftKings x Crypto.com, Robinhood’s Bull Run, and Rising Shutdown Odds

Feb 12, 2026

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4 min read

DraftKings x Crypto.com, Robinhood’s Bull Run, and Rising Shutdown Odds

As much as it annoys me, sportsbooks are making moves in the world of prediction markets. But, I'm hoping that this eventually leads to practical applications of prediction markets.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Polymarket Launches “Attention Markets” & Kalshi Faces Super Bowl Backlash

Feb 11, 2026

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4 min read

Polymarket Launches “Attention Markets” & Kalshi Faces Super Bowl Backlash

Plus: Robinhood CEO predicts a prediction market “super cycle”

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Polymarket Sues Massachusetts & Sportsbooks Fear Disruption

Feb 10, 2026

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4 min read

Polymarket Sues Massachusetts & Sportsbooks Fear Disruption

Plus: Crypto VCs pivot from tokens, Giannis joins Kalshi, and Super Bowl resolution controversy.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Prediction Markets printed money with Super Bowl 60 markets.

Feb 9, 2026

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2 min read

Prediction Markets printed money with Super Bowl 60 markets.

And I don't think that is great for the future of this industry.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Two major US institutions announce support of prediction markets.

Feb 6, 2026

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4 min read

Two major US institutions announce support of prediction markets.

And, both Kalshi and Polymarket make progress towards operating legally within US regulatory guidelines.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

The CFTC just helped prediction markets in a huge way.

Feb 5, 2026

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3 min read

The CFTC just helped prediction markets in a huge way.

The decision to revoke a 2024 proposal is paving the way for new-found stability in the world of prediction markets.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

Prediction markets are now competing on an entirely new frontier: Grocery Stores

Feb 4, 2026

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5 min read

Prediction markets are now competing on an entirely new frontier: Grocery Stores

On February 2nd, 2026 Kalshi announced they were partnering with a Manhattan grocer to give away free groceries. On February 3rd, Polymarket announced they were opening a grocery store of their own.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter

The Super Bowl is becoming a double edged sword for prediction markets.

Feb 3, 2026

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5 min read

The Super Bowl is becoming a double edged sword for prediction markets.

The biggest sporting event in America is driving both positive and negative attention to the platforms making trading on the event legal in all 50 states.

Javier Castellon Villanueva

Newsletter