Crowd Wisdom vs. The Recording Academy

In 2001, David Pennock found that the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) predicted Oscar and Grammy winners more accurately than many industry heads

The wisdom of the crowd outweighed the wisdom of a few, even with play money.

This is one of the foundational studies backing the theory behind why prediction markets are an accurate forecasting tool.

Well, it is 2026 now. And, lucky for us (and David Pennock), prediction markets have been legalized. There was over 8 figures traded across Kalshi and Polymarket in this year’s Grammy markets.

There are close to 100 distinct Grammys given each year, but I will be focusing on four.

These are known as the General Field, or more broadly as the “Big Four.”

So, how accurate were prediction markets at picking this year’s Grammy winners?:

Kalshi and Polymarket both accurately predicted three out of the big four.

Prediction market traders accurately predicted: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Best New Artist; however, there was one category that traders struggled with—Song of the Year.

What made this category such a toss up was the success of Netflix’s hit movie, KPop Demon Hunters.

Kpop Demon Hunters is Netflix’s most successful movie of all time, and its main track Golden has lived in Spotify’s global top ten since it released.

This song was the most streamed amongst all nominations by a wide margin.

Anecdotally, I have heard multiple adults say that they actually thought the song was pretty good after watching Kpop Demon Hunters with their kids.

With all of this in consideration, it makes sense to me why prediction market traders had Golden priced as the favorite to win.

But, the recording academy thought otherwise.

Which song actually won Song of the Year?

Wildflower by Billie Eilish.

Voting is a black box, so we might never find out why the Recording Academy picked one over the other.

But, to be fair, the song is quite good (in my opinion) and was also one of the most streamed songs of the year.

So, congrats Billie and Finneas!

And, my condolences to anyone who bet the house on their favorite animated KPop movie.

Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket

You will have to forgive me! Kalshi and Polymarkets +100k minimum live trading sections have both stopped working for me. I am finagling with their API to create a custom dashboard of the past 24 hours live trades so I no longer on rely for their tech for this section. Just know, no whales put any trades on the big four Grammy categories (to my surprise)!

Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and/or Polymarket over the past 24 hours

Anyways, that is all for today folks. 

Thought I missed anything? 

Have anything fresh and hot off of the prediction market desk you want to share? Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).

Have a beautiful one,

Javier

(written with ❤️ and ☕️ in Nashville, TN, USA at 7:37AM CST on 2/2/2026)