Happy Thursday,
Almost Friday, though that doesn’t really mean much in the world of 24/7 prediction markets.
Anyways, sportsbooks are prominent throughout the headlines today. DraftKings announced a partnership with Crypto.com to expand their prediction market offerings. CME (the exchange providing the infrastructure for FanDuel’s prediction markets platform) has announced record volume in the aftermath of the Super Bowl.
Seems like everyday the bulk of activity in prediction markets edges towards pure unfettered gambling. My hope is that the money from these markets goes into expanding prediction markets that provide actual value.
A guy can dream I guess.
Anyways, not all is a loss.
Bernstein (a major US finance research firm) is incredibly bullish on Robinhood stock. The reason? Prediction markets.
Lastly, Kalshi’s odds for a government shutdown on Valentine’s Day have hit over 80%. Might be something to keep an eye on.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
CertiK Releases 2026 Skynet Report on Prediction Market Growth and Risks (full story)
DraftKings and Crypto.com Announce Strategic Expansion (full story)
Bernstein Predicts 87% Upside for Robinhood Driven by Prediction Markets (full story)
Wedbush Reports Record Clearing Volume for CME Group Prediction Markets (full story)
Kalshi Government Shutdown Odds Spike to 82% Ahead of February 14th Deadline (full story)
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$149.4k purchase (NO): US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?
$99k purchase (NO): the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps in March?
There wasn’t much individual whale activity (i.e. whales purchasing >100k within one trade). I am thinking of ways to integrate data from Polywhaler, which keeps track of multiple purchases by the same wallet that amount to >100k. Will keep you all posted.
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics - North Carolina Supreme Court winner? (Kalshi)
Tech - Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30? (Polymarket)
Economics - Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? (Kalshi)
Business - Disney Total Subscribers in Q1? (Kalshi)
Culture - Highest grossing movie this weekend (February 13) (Polymarket)
Hope you got some value out of this!
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 7:52 AM CST)