Hey there,
Welcome to the first edition of Anomaly Daily.
I hope you are reading this with your morning coffee in hand and your second (maybe even a third?) monitor on standby looking at the markets.
Politics are at the forefront of today’s market update with over $9M in volume entering what was a pretty quiet market until Saturday, January 24th, 2026.
During the aftermath of the shooting of Alex Pretti by ICE officers in Minneapolis this weekend, the odds of a government shutdown on Saturday, January 30th, 2026 have surged from 8.1% to 71.5%. Five trades of over $10,000 have been placed on the outcome of this market over the last 48 hours, with the largest being a $14,200 purchase of YES contracts at an average price of $0.71. What seemed like a non-possibility just a few days ago is now being priced as probable by the market. Will be interesting to see how things unfold.
Whale Watch:
$119,000 placed on YES for the Atlanta Hawks to beat Indiana
$104,400 placed on YES for the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC Championship
This market has closed and the whale was correct!
A whale purchased 149,118 YES contracts for the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC Championship at roughly 9PM EST yesterday when the score was approximately 31-20 with the Seahawks having the lead. If held to completion, this whale made off with over $43,000.
Market Maker:
Brazilian GDP Growth in Q4 2025?
Current Odds: 39% chance of GDP growth above 2.5%
Brazil net formal jobs in December 2025?
Current Odds: 12% chance of above 0 job growth
Margin of Victory in the 1st round of Texas Senate Democratic primary?
Current Odds: 25% chance of Talarico 18% or above
Margin of victory in the NJ-11 special Democratic primary?
Current Odds: 18% chance of 24% and above
Which party will win the Special Election for NJ-11?
Current Odds: 99% chance of Democratic party winning
As a general rule of thumb, I will likely never list any markets in the Market Maker section whose outcomes rely on the actions of one individual. My belief is that these markets are prime for market manipulation and the development of pure gambling habits by traders.
With that being said, today’s Market Maker is full of alpha for those obsessed with Politics and Economics.
Understand the voting trends in Texas or New Jersey-11?
Think you have an edge in understanding the performance of Brazil's economy?
These might be the markets for you.
That is all for today folks.
Hope you have a beautiful one.
Best,
Javier
(written with love and ☕️ in Nashville, TN, USA @ 5:41 PM CST 1/26/2026)