What is up guys and a happy Wednesday to all (currently 0) of you guys.
Big news for both of the top dogs in the world of prediction markets today with both Kalshi and Polymarket making major strides in their race to become the market leader.
Kalshi has announced the hiring of John Bivona as their first Head of Federal Government Relations. Bivona has spent most of his career as a political strategist within the Democratic Party, most notably working on Obama’s 2008 campaign. This comes in combination with the opening of a D.C. office for Kalshi as they ramp up their federal and state lobbying efforts.
Kalshi has recently claimed the status of top dog in the world of prediction markets after reporting over $6.5B in volume for the month of December (over double of their largest competitor Polymarket).
Polymarket, refusing to go down without a fight, is also in the news today after announcing a multi-year partnership with Major League Soccer on Monday. The deal secures Polymarket as the official AND exclusive prediction market partner for the MLS as well as the Leagues Cup. The MLS is the 3rd highest attended sports league in the US.
Sports have, without a doubt, been one of the biggest reasons Kalshi has taken such a drastic lead in the battle as of late, so it makes sense to me that Polymarket is trying to secure a growing league for itself.
In my opinion, the biggest days of this battle lie far ahead. Once Polymarket gets fully launched in the US, we will see who really is the market leader. As of right now, which is your preferred platform of choice?
Which is your preferred prediction market platform?
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours on Kalshi
$148.5k on NO for “Will BYU beat Arizona?”
Market has finalized and whale was correct
$148.5k on NO for “Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as Fed Chair?”
$131.6k on NO for “Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates by 25 bps in January?”
$127.3k on YES for “Will Arizona beat BYU?”
Market has finalized and whale was correct
$108.9k for YES on “Will the Federal Reserve Hike Rates by 0bps in January?”
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi over the past 24 hours
Who will place 2nd in the Japan snap election?
There is also a market for 3rd
Will Papau New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Who will win the 2028 London mayoral election?
Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Who will win the 2026 Welsh Parliament election?
A lot of politics in today’s new markets. Any Papau New Guinea politic heads out there who want to strategize when/if Bougainville independence will be strategized? I never could have imagined that would be a real sentence coming from my brain.
Anyways, that is all for today folks.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh and hot off of the prediction market desk you want to share? Hit me up X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier