Happy Tuesday,
The phrase at the top of my mind as I write today’s briefing: “Growing Pains.”
Prediction markets are becoming mainstream and with that comes a lot of backlash (some of which I don’t completely disagree with).
The biggest debate point within the US is whether prediction markets should be regulated at the state or federal level.
The Chair of the CFTC (the commission in charge of regulating prediction markets) released an Op-Ed yesterday in the Wall Street Journal. In the Op-Ed, Michael Selig made his case as to why he believes prediction markets must be regulated at the federal level.
This comes as states across the US are suing prediction market platforms. The case at the center of my attention in this debacle is the Nevada vs. Kalshi lawsuit which is set to have a ruling TODAY. This case will set a massive precedent for the regulation of prediction markets.
In other news, Kalshi is raking in revenue from sports-event contracts (and it is starting to worry sportsbooks and their investors). New Zealand declared prediction markets as gambling, thus making them illegal in the country.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
New CFTC Chair Defends "Lawful Innovation" in WSJ Op-Ed (full story).
Kalshi Revenue Rivals Major Sportsbooks as DraftKings stock plummets (full story).
NBA Commissioner, Adam Silver, said the NBA views prediction markets as sports betting operators (full story).
New Zealand declares prediction markets illegal (full story).
Critical Ruling Looms in Nevada vs. Kalshi (full story).
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum, non-sports) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$105.4k PURCHASE (NO): Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics - Oklahoma Republican Attorney General nominee? (Kalshi)
Tech - Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? (Polymarket)
Economics - Price of Dozen Eggs in February? (Polymarket)
Economics - Argentina Monthly Inflation: February? (Polymarket)
Politics - TX-15 Democratic nominee? (Kalshi)
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Thank you for reading and have a blessed one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 7:51 AM CST)