Hey guys,
I’ve decided to start making the daily emails a little bit more user friendly.
I assume you don’t want to read a huge deep dive everyday, so I’m going to try my best to make it about the length of a text message from an old friend trying to catch you up on their life.
On the weekend, I’ll send a focused email on one specific story in the world of prediction markets.
Anyways,
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trade Commission, the regulatory body overseeing prediction markets in the US) just withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have banned the use of political and sport prediction markets.
Moving forward, they will begin working on forming rules that prediction markets must follow to stay within the law. The good news for prediction markets is that, as long as they stay within those guidelines, they can operate without worry of being shutdown with no foresight.
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket (excluding sports)
$249.9k on NO for “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?”
$197.5k on YES for “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?”
$176.5k on NO for “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?”
$137.5k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?”
$104.6k on YES for “Will Solana dip to $90 in February?”
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Tech - Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? (Polymarket)
Tech - Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap? (Polymarket)
Economics - US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Kalshi released markets for nominal GDP for a ton of countries, just using the US as an example 🇺🇸 🐐)
Culture - How many streams will the top song on Spotify's Daily Top Songs Global have today? (Kalshi has added this as a new daily market)
Politics - UK Cabinet Minister resigns in February? (Polymarket)
Anyways, that is all for today folks.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh and hot off of the prediction market desk you want to share? Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written with ❤️ and ☕️ in Nashville, TN, USA at 6:56AM CST)