Happy Thursday.
Mainstream acceptance is at the forefront of the today’s prediction market news.
The President of the NYSE recently said the finance world has began using prediction markets as an input for traditional markets. On top of that, filings show that multiple funds on Wall Street are pushing to launch prediction market ETFs.
But, the biggest piece of news today (at least to me) is that the Federal Reserve published a paper analyzing Kalshi’s use as a benchmark for macro markets.
According to their abstract, they said: “Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”
I haven’t read the full paper (it is like 40 pages), but it truly does excite me.
This is what prediction markets were made for.
Not sports betting, or mention markets, or 5 minute crypto cycles, but as a real tool for large scale, high quality, sentiment analysis.
I think I am going to write a quick one pager this weekend summarizing the Fed paper.
Should hit your inbox Sunday morning.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
The President of the NYSE Acknowledged That Prediction Markets Are Now Moving Traditional Finance (full story).
Wall Street is Pushing to Launch Prediction Market ETFs (full story).
Kalshi's Nasdaq-100 Markets Getting Mainstream Media Attention (full story).
A Political Fight Over Prediction Markets is Brewing (full story).
The Federal Reserve Released a Paper Analyzing the Value of Kalshi’s data (full story).
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum, non-sports) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$340k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
$317.3k PURCHASE (NO): Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair?
$172.8k PURCHASE (YES): Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$162.1k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
$146.5k SALE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics: 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Polymarket)
Crypto: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? (Polymarket)
Economics: Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in March? (Kalshi)
Culture: Highest grossing movie this weekend (February 20) (Polymarket)
Entertainment: Which film will win the most Oscars? (Kalshi)
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 8:06 AM CST)