First things first, happy Friday.
Hope you are having a good one so far.
There’s been some pretty bullish news over the past 24 hours for the prediction market industry. Some pro-prediction market sentiment has been released from two major US institutions—Schwab and the NFL. But, one thing is clear, they both only want prediction markets if they are regulated tightly. Which coincides nicely with the fact that, over the past 24 hours both Kalshi and Polymarket have taken some nice strides in their mission towards operating within the regulatory guidelines.
Also, the market is pricing the return of Jesus higher than ever?
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
Kalshi created a new committee to combat insider trading (full story).
Polymarket announces partnership with Circle to transition to the use of native USDC. They previously used bridged USDC via Polygon (full story).
The CEO of Charles Schwab (a huge bank/brokerage firm) said he believes prediction markets tied to economic outcomes can provide real insight for investors. But, he does not support their use as a sports betting tool (full story).
The NFL has softened up on prediction markets. Officials were previously opposed to prediction markets but now see their value as a “fan engagement tool.” They are still pushing for strict regulation (full story).
Traders pricing the return of Jesus Christ before 2027 have outperformed Bitcoin holders over the past 5 years (full story).
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket?
$146k sale of YES on “Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?”
$126.6k purchase of YES on “Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?”
$126.5k sale of NO on “Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?”
$125.3k sale of YES on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?”
$122k sale of NO on “Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?”
Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair was seen as a certainty (reached 99% probability) after the President announced his decision to pick Warsh for Fed Chair last week. There seems to be a shake up in that market.
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Weather - “Number of tropical storms this year?” (Kalshi)
Economics - “China unemployment rate this month?” (Kalshi released several national unemployment rate markets for February, just using China as an example)
Business - “Once Upon a Farm IPO Closing Market Cap” (Polymarket)
Politics - “Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?” (Polymarket)
Politics - “Government shutdown on Valentine's Day?” (Kalshi)
Hope we helped catch you up on the world of prediction markets.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 7:06AM CST)