Happy Tuesday.
As much as I try to run from the sports related news in the world of prediction markets, it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so.
Most notably in today’s news, investors in sportsbooks are beginning to worry that prediction markets will take their market share. Sportsbooks have lobbying infrastructure out the wazhoo. If anyone can get sports related markets out of prediction markets, it might be them.
However, it is not just sportsbooks that are facing disruption. Crypto VCs are shifting their focus from tokens to prediction markets. This signals, at least to me, that prediction markets are simply becoming too big for the FinTech space to ignore.
Perhaps the biggest story for today is that Polymarket has filed a lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts for their ban of the platform. Polymarket claims prediction markets must adhere to federal law (the CFTC) not state law. This lawsuit will set a massive precedent for how prediction markets must operate going forward.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
Polymarket Sues Massachusetts to Block State Ban (full story).
Giannis Antetokounmpo Invests in Kalshi (full story).
Crypto VCs Shift Focus from Tokens to Prediction Markets (full story).
Prediction Markets Cited as Threat to Sportsbook Stocks (full story).
University of Tennessee Staffer Fired for Betting on Kalshi (full story).
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket?
$930.5k purchase (YES): US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
$316.2k purchase (NO): US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
$288.8k purchase (NO): US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
$200.5k purchase (YES): Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
$200k purchase (NO): US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
There was a bit of confusion surrounding the markets whales were active in today. The US x Iran meeting market changed its resolution twice (full story of what went down).
Also, depending on which prediction market platform you use, the market for “Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?” might have resolved differently. Notably, Cardi B did not sing at all, but major prediction markets still counted her appearance as a performance.
Confusion like this makes me thinks there might be a market for 3rd party resolution companies. Prediction markets could delegate the authentication of how an event ended within the confines of the event contract to these companies and (ideally) remove the risk of personally being found liable for how a market resolves. Just a thought.
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Politics - TX-01 Democratic nominee? (Kalshi)
Economics - Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in March? (Kalshi)
Entertainment - Which artist will be #1 on the billboard hot 100 chart dated for the week of February 21st? (Kalshi)
Tech - Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30 (Polymarket)
Climate - Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? (Polymarket)
Hope we helped catch you up on the world of prediction markets.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 8:02AM CST)