Huge news in the world of prediction markets today.
As of yesterday, Coinbase has officially rolled out prediction markets across all 50 states in partnership with Kalshi.
And, if I were Polymarket, I would probably be announcing an OpenAI-esc code red—but not for the reason you might be thinking.
While, yes, this partnership with Coinbase is a huge deal, what would really make me start to sweat if I was Polymarket is the fact that Kalshi in a matter of months has become the infrastructure for prediction markets.
Robinhood, the Wall Street Journal, Coinbase.
Although none of these partnerships work exactly the same they are all pointing towards one sign: multi-billion dollar companies are trusting Kalshi to handle the implementation of arguably the most transformative technology in market history.
However, this does open an interesting move for Polymarket.
Do you:
A. Push all your chips to the center of the table and try to win in a straight showdown against Kalshi to become the mainstream prediction market provider
or
B. Lean in to the fact that you have been a decentralized institution from the start and remain a strong second option for traders who prioritize privacy and DeFi (still a billion dollar+ opportunity).
I posted a poll on X and would love to hear your thoughts (via voting or comment).
If you are @Polymarket, do you:
— anomaly (@readanomaly) January 29, 2026
A. Try to win in a straight fight against @Kalshi to become the mainstream prediction market provider
B. Lean in to your decentralized background and focus on traders who prioritize privacy.
Context: Coinbase x Kalshi went live today.
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$750k on YES for “Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29?” on Polymarket
$417.5k on YES for “Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29?” on Polymarket
$318.1k on NO for “Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as Fed Chair?” on Kalshi
$250k on YES for “Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-29?” on Polymarket
$211.9k on YES for “Utah vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5” on Polymarket
A disturbingly large amount of volume on the performance of a team in the Turkish professional soccer league. I’m not one to say there might be sports fixing here but I don’t know if its normal for multiple 6 figure trades on the performance of a soccer team almost no one has heard of.
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and/or Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Polymarket - Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Polymarket - Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Polymarket - South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Kalshi - Who will be the Democratic nominee for HI-01?
Polymarket - Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
Meme of the Day:
Anyways, that is all for today folks.
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh and hot off of the prediction market desk you want to share? Hit me up X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Have a beautiful one,
Javier
(written with ❤️ and ☕️ in Nashville, TN, USA at 9:14PM CST)