Happy Wednesday!
For the past few months, as prediction markets have exploded in popularity, there has been an ongoing battle between state and federal regulatory agencies over which one reserves the right to regulate these new markets.
This scuffle escalated to a new level yesterday.
Remember that ruling that I mentioned?
Well, it did not come out in favor of Kalshi.
The court decided not to grant Kalshi an administrative stay (which would have allowed them to continue operating in Nevada). The Nevada Gaming Control Board then filed a lawsuit to block Kalshi from operating.
Meanwhile, the Chair of the CFTC released an announcement declaring that the CFTC is the only agency with regulatory capacity over prediction markets and that any states that attempt to regulate prediction markets would be met with litigation. Almost immediately, Senators from both sides of the aisle began voicing their opinions on the CFTC’s statement.
It is getting rough out here. A dog fight is almost certain to break out. We’ll keep you updated all along the way.
Headline Review: The five biggest stories in the world of prediction markets over the past 24 hours. Not affiliated with any of the original news outlets covering these stories.
Appeals Court Hands Procedural Loss to Kalshi in Nevada (full story).
Nevada Regulators Sue to Block Kalshi (full story).
CFTC Asserts Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets (full story).
Michael Selig (Chair of CFTC, the regulatory committee over prediction markets) Posts Video Asserting the CFTC’s Stance (link to video here).
Senators Voice Their Opinion’s on the CFTC’s Stance (full story).
Whale Watch: the 5 largest trades ($100k minimum, non-sports) over the past 24 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket
$342.6k PURCHASE (NO): US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?
$294k PURCHASE (DOWN): Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 17?
$200k PURCHASE (DOWN): Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17?
$101K SALE (YES): Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Market Maker: 5 new unique (i.e. non repeating) markets added to Kalshi and Polymarket over the past 24 hours
Culture - Which film will win the most Oscars? (Kalshi)
Politics - State of the Union $ of viewers? (Polymarket)
Economics - Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May? (Polymarket)
Politics - Will the next elected US president be a woman? (Polymarket)
Culture - "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office (Polymarket)
Thought I missed anything?
Have anything fresh off the prediction market desk you want to share?
Hit me up on X or Instagram (@readanomaly).
Peace be upon you,
Javier
(written in Nashville, TN, USA at 8:30 AM CST)